The granting of power to health and social care agencies in Greater Manchester offers the chance to make a significant improvement to the life expectancy of the population of the conurbation. One of the aims of DevoManc is “To close the health inequalities gap within GM and between GM and the rest of the UK faster”.
Life expectancy at birth is a summary measure of the health status of a population. Comparing life expectancies across districts indicates the extent of health inequalities. Across English local authorities there is a difference of 8.7 years in the life expectancy of men and 6.4 years in the life expectancy of women. For many years Manchester has had the dubious distinction among local authorities of having the lowest male and female life expectancy at birth.
Tables 1 and 2 highlight the trend in life expectancy in Greater Manchester. Among the ten districts only Stockport and Trafford have a life expectancy for males and females higher than the England figure for 2011-13 of 83.1 years for women and 79.4 for men.
For more than 20 years Manchester has had the lowest female life expectancy among the Greater Manchester districts. Women in Trafford in 2011-13 had a life expectancy of 83.5 years, the highest in Greater Manchester. There was, in 2011-13, a 3.5 year gap between the life expectancies of Manchester and Trafford.
Manchester has also had, for more than 20 years, the lowest male life expectancy in Greater Manchester. Men in Trafford in 2011-13 had a life expectancy of 79.9 years, the highest in the conurbation. The life expectancy gap during 2011-13 between Manchester and Stockport was 4.4 years.
Table 1
Female life expectancy at birth (years)
| Area | 1991-1993 | 2001-2003 | 2005-2007 | 2011-2013 |
| England | 79.1 | 80.7 | 81.8 | 83.1 |
| Trafford | 78.5 | 80.6 | 82.1 | 83.5 |
| Stockport | 78.9 | 81.0 | 82.0 | 83.0 |
| Bolton | 77.3 | 79.2 | 79.6 | 81.6 |
| Bury | 78.4 | 79.9 | 80.5 | 81.2 |
| Oldham | 77.0 | 78.6 | 79.1 | 81.2 |
| Rochdale | 76.9 | 78.8 | 79.5 | 81.0 |
| Wigan | 77.4 | 78.6 | 79.6 | 80.9 |
| Salford | 76.5 | 77.9 | 79.0 | 80.4 |
| Tameside | 77.9 | 79.0 | 79.5 | 80.3 |
| Manchester | 76.4 | 77.8 | 78.7 | 80.0 |
Table 2
Male life expectancy at birth (years)
| Area | 1991-1993 | 2001-2003 | 2005-2007 | 2011-2013 |
| England | 73.6 | 76.1 | 77.5 | 79.4 |
| Trafford | 73.9 | 76.6 | 77.8 | 79.9 |
| Stockport | 73.5 | 76.1 | 77.5 | 79.7 |
| Bury | 73.0 | 75.5 | 76.5 | 78.2 |
| Wigan | 72.4 | 74.4 | 75.5 | 77.7 |
| Bolton | 72.1 | 74.3 | 75.3 | 77.6 |
| Oldham | 71.2 | 73.7 | 75.2 | 77.6 |
| Rochdale | 71.4 | 73.8 | 75.1 | 77.2 |
| Tameside | 72.2 | 73.6 | 75.3 | 76.9 |
| Salford | 70.8 | 73.2 | 74.6 | 76.6 |
| Manchester | 69.6 | 71.8 | 73.2 | 75.5 |
Source: Office for National Statistics
A report by James Bennett and colleagues, published recently in The Lancet, forecasts that life expectancy across England and Wales will continue to increase. The research team forecasts that by 2030 female life expectancy in England and Wales will be 87.6 for women and 85.7 for men. Table 3 lists the forecast life expectancies for Greater Manchester districts.
Life expectancy for men is forecast to increase over the next 15 years at a faster rate than that for women. The difference in the life expectancy of Stockport compared to Manchester is forecast to narrow slightly. Since the devolution of power is designed to increase the efficiency and effectiveness of health and social care, these forecasts can be the basis of ambitious targets for DevoManc.
The research suggests that if present trends continue, female life expectancy in Manchester will, in 2020, be 82.4 years. Why not make a DevoManc life expectancy target for Manchester of 83 years by 2020, and 85 years by 2025?
The forecast for male life expectancy in 2020 in Manchester is 78.3 years. An ambitious but achievable target for Manchester would be 79 years by 2020 and 81 years by 2025. For both men and women DevoManc should aim, by 2030, to equalise life expectancy across the Greater Manchester districts.
Forecast life expectancy (years)
| Females | ||||
| District | 2015 | 2020 | 2025 | 2030 |
| Trafford | 84.8 | 86.2 | 87.5 | 88.7 |
| Stockport | 84.4 | 85.8 | 87.0 | 88.1 |
| Bolton | 82.6 | 83.9 | 85.1 | 86.1 |
| Oldham | 82.2 | 83.5 | 84.8 | 86.0 |
| Bury | 82.5 | 83.7 | 84.8 | 85.8 |
| Wigan | 82.0 | 83.3 | 84.5 | 85.5 |
| Rochdale | 82.1 | 83.3 | 84.4 | 85.4 |
| Salford | 81.7 | 83.0 | 84.2 | 85.3 |
| Tameside | 81.7 | 83.0 | 84.2 | 85.2 |
| Manchester | 81.0 | 82.4 | 83.6 | 84.7 |
| Gap | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 4.0 |
| Males | ||||
| District | 2015 | 2020 | 2025 | 2030 |
| Stockport | 81.1 | 82.8 | 84.6 | 86.3 |
| Trafford | 81.0 | 82.7 | 84.6 | 86.3 |
| Bury | 79.4 | 81.1 | 82.9 | 84.6 |
| Bolton | 78.8 | 80.6 | 82.4 | 84.3 |
| Wigan | 78.9 | 80.6 | 82.4 | 84.1 |
| Rochdale | 78.3 | 80.1 | 81.9 | 83.6 |
| Oldham | 78.2 | 79.9 | 81.7 | 83.4 |
| Tameside | 78.1 | 79.8 | 81.5 | 83.3 |
| Salford | 77.6 | 79.4 | 81.3 | 83.2 |
| Manchester | 76.4 | 78.3 | 80.1 | 81.9 |
| Gap | 4.7 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.4 |
Source: Life expectancy in England and Wales http://uklex.azurewebsites.net/